The index is not the market

Over dinner yesterday, an uncle of mine posed an interesting question: if the Sensex, which is an Indian index covering 30 stocks, when up from around 57k to 58k last year, why is it that most investment stock market related mechanisms/instruments, whether ETFs, Index funds, Portfolio Management Systems were down?

The index is not the market: a collection of 30 stocks, (or 50, if you take the NIFTY), can’t account for the price performance of the entire market. It remains representative of only the stocks in question. Apart from this, most investment instruments would have a mix of index and non-index stocks, they might also buy and sell stocks through the year (they don’t just sit and wait), and many will not have the same shares in the same proportion as their weightage in the index.

I was thinking that this statement, of the index not being the market, could apply to other areas as well: for example, the consumer price index or the wholesale price index are also not necessarily an accurate reflection of market prices of products. Naukri’s JobSpeak index is an indication of job posted on Naukri.com, and not the state of the job market in India. These are mere indicators: they’re useful, but they’re not the market.

There is no *real* Evernote alternative

Update: It took a while, but I realised eventually that I was wrong about Obsidian: it does have a hierarchical structure that allows you to store your notes in nested folders. Over this weekend, I’ve managed to switch from Evernote and NotesNook to Obsidian. Firstly, I’m glad to be free of the complications of NotesNook, but more importantly, I’m glad that there is a simple enough tool that gets the basics of moving things around right, even though it lacks a proper quick capture tool, and I still haven’t been able to figure out storing PDFs. I’m also not sure if I’ve done the importation right. Setting up syncing across devices using syncthing was fun 🙂 There appear to be some functionalities missing, but it looks like this was what I was looking for, and then some more.

What’s also cool about Obsidian is the plugins. There are a couple of AI plugins to look into, that add an AI Assistant that uses your Obsidian notes as base. I’m planning to try out bi-directional linking soon, and it should be fun going through YouTube videos on Obsidian.

The “why” I’m obsessing over note-taking is important. In my work, structured notes are a superpower. Connected notes even more so. I was all over the place with notes before Allwin introduced me to them, saying specifically it’s something he thought I’d benefit from. He was right.

The “Why” of note-taking: Structured note-taking enables me to write better, find information, prepare talks, note down some developments for reference. I’ve become so much more efficient at thinking about things and creating outputs because of my note taking. As an example, if I’m called on TV once the data protection bill comes out, I have comments I’ve made on data protection over the past 4 versions, all in Evernote. I’ve got some 70 odd notes for things I’ve said on TV, so basically I can talk about any issue at any time, because it’s easy for me to build on my previous work, by either referencing it for new points, or pointing out how things have changed. The act of going through these notes trigger new ideas or lines of thought. At times, they’re a reflection of what I was prioritising then in what I was going to say. It’s also a dumping ground for useful things: I must have saved over 200 tweets to go through on AI.

July 22: I’ve been experimenting with Evernote alternatives, essentially looking to exit Evernote once and for all. I’ve tried Notion, AnyType, SimpleNote, NotesNook, Obsidian and so many more.

I take notes like a maniac: both written and digital, having been urged to do so repeatedly by both Rajesh Jain and Sanjeev Bikhchandani.

I’m using a modified version of Tiago Forte’s PARA method (I’ve merged Areas and Resources, under Resources, and I’m using “Action” instead…kinda like a someday list of things to do: articles to write, videos to watch, articles to read etc. In addition, I have an “inactive” notebook for projects that are on hold for the time being. This method changed the way I process and store information, and has made me much more effective in my work. When I quick-capture something I move them into inbox, and then every couple of days (though sometimes, it’s a weekly exercise), I move notes from inbox into a notebook…often, into a project note. Once a project is completed, I simply move the entire notebook from Projects to Archives, or if incomplete, into inactive.

Here’s what I need:

  • Quick capture into a basic notebook
  • Cross platform availability, whether Windows, Mac, iOS, Android. I use all of these.
  • Hierarchical structure: Evernote’s hierarchical structure of Stacks > Notebooks > Notes is ideal.

Notion and Anytype are far too complex for simple hierarchical note-taking, Simplenote and Google Keep don’t have hierarchies, Obsidian seems linear too, although notes are interconnected. I don’t like OneNote: it’s too clunky.

Notesnook is the closest I’ve seen to Evernote. Its hierarchy appears to be Notebooks > Topics > Notes, although you can add notes in a notebook without attributing a topic to it. It’s not as intuitive to operate:

  • Moving notes and projects(as topics), in particular, is messed up:
    • There’s no drag-and-drop functionality to move notes around.
    • The hierarchy isn’t visible in the sidebar, and it takes too many clicks to move anything anywhere. Just slows down everything.
  • If you’re doing a quick capture into an inbox notebook, you can’t move it around: Notes here can belong to multiple notebooks, so with each instance of moving a note, you have to add it to a topic in a notebook, and then remove it from another notebook. Double the work for something that should have been drag and drop.

I’ve spent the last half and hour trying to process a weeks worth of notes, in terms of moving it to the correct notebook on NotesNook, and I’m fed up. On an average, I take around 5-10 notes a day, and this is just too painful.

While I still haven’t found something that works, I know that NotesNook is my (painful to use) replacement for the time being. I’m not averse to paying for something here: at present I’m paying for both Evernote and NotesNook.

Evernote has gone downhill over the past few months: it isn’t syncing as well. I’ve lost notes that I’ve typed on a flight, including notes that I culled out notes from a 100 page document, as soon as I’ve come online. Evernote customer service wasn’t very helpful there. In addition to this, Evernote is increasing prices: I really don’t want to pay more for a service going downhill.

I was keen on figuring out AnyType, but their onboarding is non-existent. I still can’t figure out the distinction between Sets and Collections in AnyType, and unfortunately, for both AnyType and NotesNook, there are no tutorials, posts or YouTube videos explaining how to set up the PARA method. AnyType doesn’t even have quick capture.

Meanwhile, earlier this week I decided to stop adding new notes to Evernote: I’ve replaced the quick capture button for Evernote with that for NotesNook on my phones, and removed Evernote from my phone homepage. Now I need somewhere to transfer all of those backed up ENX files with around 5000 notes to shift.

In case anyone has suggestions or a solutions, do let me know. My email address is [my twitter handle] AT gmail DOT com.

Because we’re collateral damage

I was up till late last night trying to make a digital payment for MediaNama, for a critical piece of software for our functioning. The payment was declined twice, despite entering all details, and receiving an SMS for an OTP which I provided.

I called up HDFC Bank customer-care, and after jumping through several hoops — they’ve added an absolutely useless voice to text layer that doesn’t work — when it finally directed the call to a customer care executive, it kept me on hold for an extended period of time before disconnecting the call.

In the meantime, there was nothing from the bank about why the transaction was decline: no email, no message.

Switch to today morning: the transaction gets automatically declined without even soliciting an OTP, and I get a message on email indicating that the merchant doesn’t comply with RBI guidelines for card payments. This is, of course, not new. We’re unable to also use Gravity Forms at MediaNama because they’ve declined to accept Indian cards because of the RBI guidelines on tokenisation.

Surprisingly, the same transaction that was declined by HDFC Bank went through with another bank. Why? Whose responsibility is it to ensure uniformity in application of guidelines? Did the RBI take into consideration issues that Indian companies might face when trying to sign up for global software? Where was their public consultation process?

This is what happens with top-down policymaking, with myopic regulators with limited understanding of how global markets and operations function, ending up stifling and inconveniencing those for whom the impact is the greatest. For all the talk about Digital India and Startup India, we’re still only regulating keeping global Big Tech in mind.

If you think this RBI issue is bad, think of the impact that data localisation will have, where even free-to-use software will stop functioning. What doesn’t help, of course, is a government with China envy, and pliant billionare founders trying to suck up to the powers that be. One spoke at India Internet Day a few years ago, making an emotional case — because a logical case is hard to make — for data localisation. Another wrote a blog post.

Meanwhile, others suffer. We’re just collateral damage.

On 28% GST in “real-money gaming” in India

India has levied 28% GST on the entire amount in case of payments made for gaming and real-money-gaming. It’s a controversial decision, with lobbyists for the Real Money Gaming industry, and some astro-turfing consumer group criticising this development. A comprehensive overview here on MediaNama.

I’ve spoken publicly about this issue:

  1. The Core podcast with Govindraj Ethiraj: Listen
  2. CNN News18: Watch
  3. Russia Today

My take:

  1. The online realmoney gaming industry has essentially been treated equally with gambling, when it comes to taxation. In my opinion, they’re not very different, and many countries across the world regulate online real money gaming in the same way that they regulate gambling.
  2. Lobbying over the last two years has focused on driving a distinction between real-money-gaming and gambling, and even sought to treat is as a type of gaming. Even now, comments from lobbyists suggest that “gaming will be destroyed” by this move. In the past, they’ve tried to position themselves as “eSports”, which failed. What irks me is this false equivalence with gaming: Gaming isn’t dependent on people playing to earn: it’s dependent on people playing to win. There’s a difference.
  3. India’s Ministry of Electronics and IT recognised them as online real-money gaming intermediaries even though:
    • The IT Act doesn’t allow creating these new definitions.
    • Gaming isn’t an intermediary function: there are controls and gameplay, as well as algorithmic behavior, that are determined by the Platform. Traditionally, games are traditionally “publishers”, and creators of entertainment. To the extent, they’re a new form of entertainment, because the environment responds to your behavior.
  4. MEITY seems to have jumped through hoops to twist definitions and processes to accomodate the online realmoney gaming industry as a gaming industry under the IT Act, in the IT Rules. There’s a major case in TN about jurisdiction, and gambling is regulated by states. Given the Levels of addiction, TN passed a bill to ban online realmoney gaming/gambling. Telangana hasn’t been too keen on them either. Hence the forum shopping with MEITY, where they’ve found favour, including with MoS for IT, Rajeev Chandrasekhar. I mean, if India wants to legalise gambling, let’s do that. I don’t think MEITY’s “creativity” in dealing with this issue reflects well on those involved.
  5. Over the past year, we’ve seen advertisements without disclaimers about addiction, and promises of making multiples of money, which is an approach similar to gambling. The industry is worried that now, given that consumers are likely to win less, they’ll stop playing…there’s something deeply flawed about an industry that says that their users won’t play if they won’t make enough money when they win.
  6. Credit is due to India’s GST Council and Finance Ministry that they’ve seen through these shenanigans. Clearly there is a worry that this segment is too hot, and its clearly a sin segment. Addiction, indebtedness with payday loan apps, suicides, and they needed to open a valve and release some pressure. Remember crypto? Same kind of gambling situation, with promises of great returns. What did finmin do? In hindsight (and I was very critical of it initially), TDS was a pressure release. Around 60% drop in transactions in the first month. 28% GST will have the same effect on the so called “online realmoney gaming” industry. This is a welcome move. It’s good for consumers. Of course, there are court cases on, both around jurisdiction (state vs centre, gaming vs gambling ). There might be new cases around taxation. Watch this space.

Bring on the unpredictable

The world is rapidly getting inundated with automated content: We’re seeing faceless YouTube videos grow, TV channels are deploying AI anchors. Some services that can ingest hours of someones audio, in order to generate new speech with their voice and intonation. Others allow you to get your entire body mapped to create a lifelike digital replica. The world of deepfakes is here.

The problem here is predictability and lack of personality. What often makes us interested in other humans is not the predictable part of their behavior, but what surprises us about them: what will they say, ask, or do. Some amount of predictability is important for comfort, but really what hooks us is the unpredictable.

The voices may no longer be robotic, the facial movements might now be in sync with the audio, but I’d like to believe that there are some things in a human being that are human, and inspire intrigue and trust at the same time.

So in a world of people playing it safe with AI generated content, with mass generation of how to videos made from scraping Reddit and Wikipedia, I think there’s going to be comfort in personalities, because they are both predictable and unpredictable, in predictable and unpredictable ways.

There is, of course, talk of Artificial General Intelligence that can replicate this human behavior. I’d like to believe that it can’t, for example, replace me. I suppose you’d like to believe that too.

Digital Payments mess: On the impact of recurring payments and tokenisation

I spoke with Suprita Anupam of Inc42 for a story he did on the impact of the Reserve Bank of India’s recurring payments and tokenisation on consumers and businesses. It’s a thoroughly researched article, and I highly recommend reading it.

My comments on the issue:

  • Recurring transactions, both Indian and global, fail often: “Both as a consumer and as a business user of global digital services, I’ve found that recurring transactions fail often. We’ve also had situations where some global services no longer accept Indian credit cards, post the RBI guidelines related to recurring payments, as well as the tokenisation guidelines. As a consumer, I have had to re-enter my credit card details and enable payments for a few Indian services as well, and that’s an inconvenience I wish I didn’t have to deal with.
  • Lack of a proper consultation process creates such issues: “The problem I have with the Reserve Bank of India is that they don’t appear to take into consideration the impact of their regressive regulations on merchants and consumers, and the increasing inconvenience this leads to. There was no impact assessment, no public consultation: just a diktat with a deadline, which eventually got pushed repeatedly because of lack of feasibility.
  • Why only credit cards? We also have to take into account that the RBI has enforced these guidelines on credit cards, which have better customer service, fraud detection and accountability, and yet they’ve failed to do anything to enforce accountability in case of UPI, especially in terms of fraud detection and prevention. There’s a saying “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” In case of the RBI, they broke something that was working — credit card payments– and have failed to fix something that is crying out loud for regulatory intervention — UPI.”

TV Show: The impact of low cost handsets on India’s Internet

On CNBC-TV18, we discussed yesterday the launch of a low cost Reliance Jio handset and its impact on India. My key topic points:

My notes for the show:

  • Handsets are important: Low cost handsets are important for Internet access because they bring access to the internet for users. You cant give 1GB a day for a few hundred rupees a month, and then expect a user to pay Rs 10,000 for a handset. Users also transition eventually from low cost devices to higher cost devices as their understanding of the utility of the Internet increases.
  • India’s internet user base has mostly been stagnating over the last few quarters. So another price war might actually help shake things up a bit.
  • Jio 5G: 6,024 Cities/Towns, but 51 in J&K, 74 in Uttarakhand, 11 towns in Mizoram, 19 in Nagaland, 18 in Manipur
  • Address shared access in low income households: Lower cost handsets also drive personal Internet access, rather than shared Internet access. RIght now many handsets are essentially household internet access, and this makes it difficult for women in these households to get to use the Internet. Lower cost devices address this gap.
  • Downward pricing pressure for other operators: the pricing of the bundle brings Internet pricing down to Rs 123 (around $1.5) per month. Other incumbent mobile operators have increased Internet access pricing recently, and this will probably bring costs down for all users, and other operators feel downward pricing pressure.
  • Great for Startups targeting Bharat: Augurs well for startups targeting Digital Bharat, including agritech startups
  • Jio has been critical for Internet growth in India: if you check the charts, the launch of Jio in 2016 led to a decline in 2G connections and a massive increase in mobile broadband (3G+4G connections). Most people leapfrogged 2G and 3G and went straight to 4G.
  • Ubiquitous infra rollout still needed: We still don’t have adequate 4G infra in all spaces. There are areas in the hills and in between towns and cities where it’s not adequate. At times, in some areas, one mobile operator has better infrastructure than the other, including in case of Jio. I think eventually the availability of network will be more important than pricing of Internet of access in some regions, and that’s where Jio still needs work.
  • Bundling services into the same price and replacing other forms of entertainment also makes a lot of sense. It’s not as if it has not been tried before, like Airtel had Wynk and its own movie services as well… all of this competition is fantastic for consumers.

TV Show: Regulating financial influencers

The influencer ecosystem has been gaining importance in India: they’re better than most media and experts at understanding consumer needs and packaging their content. Many of them are experts at what they do. They monetize their work through advertisements, product placements, and subscription based premium content or advisory models.

They thus replicate many of the functions of media publications.

I was on News9 to discuss a few controversies around the financial influencer space, now referred to as “finfluencers”, and frankly, as long as they don’t play in a regulated space such as stock advisory services, without the required regulatory certification/registration/license met, I think they’re providing an important service of financial education.

I also spoke about the upcoming Digital India Bill in the first part of the show.

More in the video:

Some points from my pre-show preparation about the Digital India Bill:

  • I’d be surprised if the digital India bill is tabled in 15 days. Mr Chandrasekhar a month and half ago said it will be put up for public consultation on June 7th. The dates have been pushed.
  • Very dangerous for Startup India, if safe harbor is removed. Majority of Indian and global companies will not be able to survive
  • The IT Act amendments in 2008, and subsequent court proceedings gave us several freedoms and we should not lose them.
  • I hope we don’t see the revival of 66A
  • Sectoral regulation will hurt innovation: companies take time to find product market fit.

TV Shows: Addressing job loss fears around AI

Are AI tools a boon or a bane. On TV shows and on conference panels, I’ve spoken about how AI tools actually make our work easier, and more efficient. Whether an organisation wants to do more with the greater efficiency or make people redundant is their decision, and no fault of the AI tools. It’s important for people to learn these tools, and add these skill sets.

Two TV shows:

My show notes from the Jan 2023 discussion:

  1. Here’s where AI is being used:
  • Drafting legal contracts
  • Designing rooms according to a theme and size
  • Generating written content, such as articles, blog posts, and scripts
  • Creating dialogue for characters in video games, movies, and TV shows
  • Generating song lyrics and poetry
  • Assisting with brainstorming and idea generation for advertising and marketing campaigns
  • Creating chatbot responses for customer service and virtual assistants
  • Finding the right image for a mood
  • Writing emails
  • Creating proposals
  • Writing marketing content
  • Improving emails you’ve written to be more respectful
  1. ChatGPT AI has a clear bias: the dataset that it references. The final output should always be reviewed and edited by a human to ensure it is of high quality and appropriate for the intended use.
  2. AI is going to get better with time. It uses a feedback loop to understand what humans want and what they dont.
  3. AI can improve efficiency and productivity of individuals but an also lead to job losses for some.  The market will change.
  4. Impact industries like data entry, customer service, and other tasks that rely on language. ChatGPT can be used to quickly and accurately understand and respond to customer queries, allowing companies to improve their customer service and support. This can lead to improved efficiency and cost savings for businesses.
  5. The development and deployment of ChatGPT and other language models can also create new job opportunities in fields such as data science, machine learning, and software engineering. People will need skilling.

TV Show: The cost of Internet Shutdowns

The function of a state is to protect our fundamental rights. When a government imposes an Internet Shutdown, it’s an acknowledgement that it’s unable to protect our fundamental right to free speech. Internet Shutdowns are a failure of governance. It’s also disproportionate. In order to shut down illegal speech, and sometimes they shut the Internet down when there are exams, they’re censoring all legitimate speech as well.

Digital India fails when there is no Internet. Digital Payments don’t work. Students can’t apply for exams or colleges.

India has the highest Internet Shutdowns in the world. It’s a shame.

On AI and its impact on News Media

I spoke at the Media Foundation Dialogues, organised by the Foundation for Media Professionals, held at the India International centre.

I really don’t think that journalists have anything to fear: AI tools can help them in their work, and will never entirely replace reporting. At MediaNama, we’re already using AI tools for transcription, and have started experimenting with prompts to clean copy, correct grammar, generate tweets from article, suggest article ideas, headlines, questions for interviews, speakers for conferences. We’re also creating tweets, threads, generating text to video, scripts for video. There’s so much more. The list will expand, as we become better at prompt engineering. AI will make things easier for journalists, not more difficult.

Creating and optimising videos for different platforms will be easier and faster. Processing videos will become so much more efficient.

The part that excites me most is how much translation and voice to text and text to voice will become over the next few years. That gives us the opportunity to cater to language audiences in India.

The business model challenges are of course going to increase, especially with increased advertising inventory, and fewer people required to do the same job. At the same time, this helps smaller publications punch far above their weight. How they navigate AI over the next few years is going to be critical.

A repeated some of the points I had made during the discussion, in a separate video for MediaNama: